Professor Akira Terai

Area and Subject Taught Macroeconomics
Research Theme(s) Macroeconomics and the Japanese Economy, Inflation, Expectations
Academic Degrees M.A. in Economics, University of Tokyo
Keywords for Research Field Macroeconomics, Empirical Analysis of the Japanese Economy
Office Phone Number Not Public

Research Overview

In macroeconomics, economic policy plays an important role. For example, a temporary increase in government purchases may not only raise national income through the “multiplier,” which implies a simultaneous relationship, but it may also serve as a signal regarding future economic policy. In other words, even if economic policy does not change quantitatively today, such a policy may be effective because economic agents interpret it as an important signal. That is, agents may change their expectations, and may change their behaviors. My academic interest is in“ inflation expectations,” which is a typical index of expectations. Since there are no sufficiently reliable statistics that measure inflation expectations in Japan directly, I am studying the method of measuring inflation expectations. I am also studying how to evaluate the relationship between inflation expectations and various economic indices. These researches include the study of the“ New Keynesian Phillips curve.” Since such research identifies the economic patterns in which agents foresee the future, these can then be used in the formulation of appropriate fiscal and monetary policies.

Notable Publications and Works

  1. “Analysis of distribution of inflation expectation: how several households anchor their mean of distribution”(in Japanese) 京都産業大学論集 社会科学系列 第31号,pp.57-73.
  2. “A simulation Analysis of the Election System:How much do the approval rating and seats deviate?”(in Japanese) 京都産業大学論集 社会科学系列 第29号,pp.143-154.
  3. “Measurement Error in Estimating Inflation Expectations from Survey Data,”Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, Vol 2009/2, p.49-72.
  4. “Estimating the distribution of inflation expectations,”Economics Bulletin, Vol.30 no.1 pp.315-329.